The global economy is expected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2026, compared with 2.9 percent last year. The energy shock resulting from the conflict in the Middle East is weighing on growth, according to the UN’s trade and development body UNCTAD.
World trade is expected to increase by 4 percent in constant prices, while trade between China and the US has declined by more than 20 percent since 2024. Asia is expected to account for 59 percent of global growth, with growth of 7.3 percent in India and 4.5 percent in China.
UNCTAD also warns of financial risks linked to the AI boom, as markets become increasingly dependent on a handful of companies.
