US officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 has become increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping having ordered the military to be ready to take the island by force in 2027 if necessary. Reuters reports this, citing current and former US officials as well as a person with knowledge of the matter.
The assessment is linked, among other things, to delays in China’s military readiness and Beijing’s desire to await Taiwan’s 2028 election. According to Reuters’ sources, the risk of China using force could then increase if the ruling DPP wins a fourth term, particularly if President Lai Ching-te is re-elected.
China has not publicly confirmed any order for military readiness by 2027.
The US Department of Defense headquarters, the Pentagon, has declined to comment.
