The International Monetary Fund, IMF, expects the economies of the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan to shrink by 1.3 percent in 2026, after growing by 3.3 percent last year. Reuters reports. The region is also known by the designation MENAP, which also includes Afghanistan.
A recovery with growth of 6.6 percent is expected in 2027, provided that energy production and shipping return to normal. The forecast is based on trade resuming in the first quarter of 2027.
At the same time, the IMF warns that a protracted war and further disruptions to energy supplies could worsen the economic downturn. According to the fund, previous buffers in the form of inventories and alternative transport routes have diminished, increasing vulnerability to new disruptions.
