The EU risks a significant gas shortage this winter as a result of low storage levels and disruptions to the global energy supply linked to the war in Iran. The deficit could amount to 14 billion cubic metres of natural gas, equivalent to around 7 percent of the Union’s demand or the consumption of 10-12 million households. Politico reports this, citing new analyses.
EU gas storage facilities are just over 70 percent full, the lowest level for this time of year since measurements began in 2011. According to the IEEFA think tank, the shortage could lead to sharply rising energy prices and force member states to introduce conservation measures during a cold winter.
The European organisation for gas network operators, ENTSO-G, also warns that storage levels could fall to 11 percent in an adverse scenario. To maintain a reserve of 30 percent at the end of winter, demand may need to fall by the equivalent of 7 percent.
The situation is exacerbated by the EU’s upcoming ban on long-term contracts for Russian liquefied natural gas, LNG, which is expected to reduce imports by a further 7 billion cubic metres from January.
Replacing the lost volumes with new LNG imports is estimated to cost around 3 billion euros extra, or 12 percent more than last year. At the same time, the scope for increasing deliveries from the US is limited since production is already close to full capacity.
